tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10492881.post111009816801323394..comments2024-01-30T01:16:43.488-08:00Comments on The Paper Tiger: Censorship and Social HarmonyOther Lisahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08079055348844157557noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10492881.post-1110406985349504912005-03-09T14:23:00.000-08:002005-03-09T14:23:00.000-08:00as a p.s., I think another wild card here is the g...as a p.s., I think another wild card here is the global competition for oil. But I'm hoping for a restoration of common sense in the next American presidential election...Other Lisahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08079055348844157557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10492881.post-1110405505716075452005-03-09T13:58:00.000-08:002005-03-09T13:58:00.000-08:00Dear JR,
Not sure if I've read "cornering the dra...Dear JR,<br /><br />Not sure if I've read "cornering the dragon." Do you have a link?<br /><br />I think the Neocons have had as much influence as they've had with Bush in part because their agenda does not butt heads all that much with Corporate America (though there are some real fears in corporate America that if Bush continues to alienate people in the rest of the world that this might have a truly negative impact on "Brand America" and corporate profits). Also if the Neocons have a corporate base, it's in oil and defense contractors. So you can sell a war in Iraq to a certain extent.<br /><br />I think if the Neocons go looking for trouble with China, they are going to run straight into the wall of larger American corporate interests. It's a much harder sell with much greater risks. The economies are so intertwined that turning this into an openly competitive, hostile relationship would seem to me awfully difficult to do.<br /><br />I'd worry about it if China does something foolish like invade Taiwan, however. That could create a really bad chain of events.Other Lisahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08079055348844157557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10492881.post-1110385783028122662005-03-09T08:29:00.000-08:002005-03-09T08:29:00.000-08:00Lisa,
I agree we are in it together. Hopefully m...Lisa,<br /><br />I agree we are in it together. Hopefully mutual beneficial trading and business relationships between countries will prevail. Thru international trade, we are interdependent on each others nowadays in a positive way. An altercation or war between China, Taiwan, Japan and US will be devastating to all countries.<br /><br />I want to remain optimisitic, but currently there are two opposing groups of conservative thinking right now. One group represents the corporate interests, who prefers engaging China thru trade. The other group is the neocons. To them, business with China ranks low on their priority list. When time is ripe, they want a direct confrontation and conflicts with China. Did you read the article "cornering the dragon"? It was just about that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10492881.post-1110308468294033172005-03-08T11:01:00.000-08:002005-03-08T11:01:00.000-08:00Dear JR,
I'm not familiar with STRATFOR, and I wo...Dear JR,<br /><br />I'm not familiar with STRATFOR, and I would guess from this article that USnewswire is a public relations firm and that this is a press release from STRATFOR. <br /><br />I'm far from an expert in this area. What I've read is that the Chinese government is very concerned about too rapid growth and that the Chinese economy could be a "bubble" economy that might burst at some point (somewhat like the LA real estate market :) ). 9% plus growth is thought to be unsustainable. So the Chinese government's strategy has been to try and slow the economy deliberately and promote a "soft landing" that will not be terribly disruptive. Certainly there are a lot of documented concerns about the state of the Chinese banking system, and there are scenarios whereby the Chinese economy experiences a "hard landing," which could be extremely disruptive and lead to the kind of unrest mentioned here. I believe the consensus is that the Chinese government is very much aware of this possibility and is working to prevent it.<br /><br />For a more optimistic take, way down the page somewhere (the post is called "FutureWorld for Dummies") I linked to a CIA-sponsored report about the world in 2020. One of its main points is that both China and India will be huge forces in the global economy and have tremendous political influence that would rival the U.S.<br /><br />But there are many variables that could affect either of these forecasts - the Chinese government's ability to reform for one. I tend to be somewhat of an optimist, but things like a weakened US economy - the dollar crisis - could also have a huge negative impact on the Chinese economy. We're all in this together, something I wish the current U.S. regime would attempt to grasp...Other Lisahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08079055348844157557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10492881.post-1110304598223766262005-03-08T09:56:00.000-08:002005-03-08T09:56:00.000-08:00Hi Lisa,
I just came across the following interes...Hi Lisa,<br /><br />I just came across the following interesting news today. I am not familiar with the sources, either USnewswire or "the leading private intelligence service"~ STRATFOR. What do you think about the below report? I found it inaccurate regarding the current state of China's economy. "Looking ahead, the STRATFOR Decade Forecast for the period 2005-2015 sees China's economic growth continuing to decline" They use the word continuing to decline there shows that they are either biased or plain wrong on their previous 10 years prediction.<br /><br /><br /><br />http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=43923<br /><br />"China's Economic Bubble about to Collapse, Experts Warn<br /><br />3/7/2005 7:01:00 AM<br /><br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />To: National Desk, Business Reporter <br /><br />Contact: Jason Deal, 512-744-4309, for Stratfor <br /><br />WASHINGTON, March 7 /U.S. Newswire/ -- China's furious economic growth in recent years has created a bubble economy that is on the verge of collapse, according to Strategic Forecasting Inc. (STRATFOR), a leading private intelligence service.<br /><br />In its latest Decade Forecast report, STRATFOR says China's economy is already on life support - with an estimated $500 billion in bad debts threatening its banking system, rapidly rising unemployment, rampant government corruption and mismanagement, and foreign investment dwindling. <br /><br />"Capital flight by Western investors has already begun," the 2005-2015 Decade Forecast notes. Asian investors have been stepping in to fill the gap, "but they will be unable to sustain adequate levels of investment for very long."<br /><br />The rush of foreign investment in recent years masked the Chinese economy's underlying weaknesses, STRATFOR states, but this will not last. "Already there is dissent forming in the international community and the need for quicker profits is driving companies and investors to look elsewhere."<br /><br />Looking ahead, the STRATFOR Decade Forecast for the period 2005-2015 sees China's economic growth continuing to decline, leading to an increase in internal tensions, social upheaval and violence, which the central government in Beijing may be unable to control after 2008. <br /><br />For media inquiries, interview requests, or to receive a media copy of the 2005-2015 Decade Forecast, contact Jason Deal at 512- 744-4309 or via pr@stratfor.com. For all other inquiries, including purchase of the Decade Forecast and other special reports, please visit: http://www.stratfor.com/ad_decade.php. <br /><br />http://www.usnewswire.com/<br /><br />-0-<br /><br />/© 2005 U.S. Newswire 202-347-2770/"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com